Research/Briefing27 Feb 2026
Iraq’s refining resurgence redraws crude flows, export leverage and fiscal trade-offs
Iraq’s refining capacity has surged past 1.5 million b/d, driven by Baiji’s rehabilitation, creating significant spare capacity and reshaping crude allocation dynamics. This downstream revival is altering Iraq’s export flexibility, OPEC+ positioning and leverage in northern pipeline negotiations, marking a structural shift in oil policy.